Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 198

In the past, they had to use German goods because Russia needed German technology to strengthen its own industrial power. Therefore, under the coercion of the Tsarist government, everyone was forced to use German goods. However, now that protective tariffs have been imposed on trade between Russia and Germany, the Tsarist government has lost the incentive to force the import of German industrial products.

Trade between Russia and Germany is now proceeding only on inertia, while trade between Russia and the United States, Britain, and France is increasing rapidly. Public sentiment in both countries is also affected by this trade war. There are not many Russians who used to support the Three Emperors' Alliance. For example, taking advantage of Russia's defeat in the Far East, Wilhelm II attempted to sign a peace treaty between Germany and Russia with Nicholas II, but this agreement was quickly rejected by Russian ministers.

Judging solely from the outcome of this event, Krupp was not optimistic about the future of relations between Germany and Russia. Russia was a more autocratic monarchy than Germany; Wilhelm II's autocratic power in Germany was far less than that of Nicholas II. Yet, Nicholas II, possessing such autocratic power, had an agreement he had signed overturned by his own ministers—a blatant slap in the face for him.

Therefore, Krupp agreed with Lin Xinyi's analysis that Russia would inevitably join the Anglo-French agreement, rather than siding with Germany or remaining neutral. Russia could not remain neutral because Nicholas II, defeated in the Far East, needed foreign capital to maintain his domestic rule. This capital came from either Germany or Britain and France. Since Russia would not side with Germany, it could only side with Britain and France; there was no middle ground.

But he still held onto a sliver of hope, saying, "Even if Britain and France get Russia's support, Germany still has Italy and Austria-Hungary as allies. Britain and France probably won't easily start a war."

Lin Xinyi could tell that Krupp himself didn't quite believe it, so he bluntly said, "The Austro-Hungarian Empire has a short coastline and is a member of Greater Germania, so the Austro-Hungarian Empire probably has no choice. If Germany fails, the non-German-controlled areas within the Austro-Hungarian Empire will probably be separated."

However, Italy, being a peninsular nation, sided with Germany in hopes of using German power to counter France. If Britain and France joined forces, Italy, as a peninsular nation, would have no choice but to follow Britain, as Germany could not protect Italy's security in the Mediterranean. The Ottoman Empire, on the other hand, because Russia had joined the Anglo-French agreement, would have been forced to side with Germany to avoid Russian occupation of the Channel region.

Therefore, this war in Europe was essentially a redistribution of power in Central and Eastern Europe, further eliminating the legitimacy of the Ottoman Empire's rule, and incidentally removing the possibility of Germany becoming the hegemon of Europe.

If Germany cannot disband its high seas fleet, the Ottoman Empire does not relinquish its claims to Egypt and the Middle East, and Austria-Hungary does not abandon its intervention in the Balkans, then war will be inevitable. Of course, such a peace is unacceptable to the Germans; it would mean that all of Germany's achievements since the Franco-Prussian War would be wiped out, and it would once again become part of the German principalities' alliance…”

Chapter 657

Chapter 657

Franz Krupp immediately understood Lin Xinyi's words. The "failed Germany" he was referring to was actually the German Empire represented by the Kingdom of Prussia, or more precisely, the failure of the Hohenzollern family.

Because the Hohenzollern dynasty's imperial title was bestowed by the Imperial Diet rather than mandated by heaven, the Imperial Diet also had the right to abolish this title, making it more of an honor than a real power.

It is often said that the German Empire was a constitutional monarchy, but this monarch was actually Wilhelm I, who inherited the title of King of Prussia, not the German Emperor. In other words, all of Wilhelm II's power over Germany came from his status as King of Prussia, not as German Emperor. This meant that when Wilhelm II failed to defend the interests of the German nation, the people would abandon him and seek out the next German Emperor.

How did the title of German Emperor come about? It wasn't something Bismarck came up with on a whim after the Franco-Prussian War victory. Rather, it came about after the Napoleonic Wars, in response to the resurgence of reactionary aristocratic forces in Europe. In 1848, widespread bourgeois revolutions broke out, from the February Revolution in France to the Vienna Uprising. The whole of Western Europe was in an atmosphere of mass uprisings.

At the time, William I was only a prince, but his uncle William IV had been ill for a long time, so the actual political affairs were handled by Prince William. This prince, who had served in the military for a long time, immediately mobilized the army to suppress the people of Berlin. However, the workers, citizens and university students of Berlin built barricades and fought against 14,000 troops for 14 hours, forcing the army to withdraw from Berlin. William IV announced his surrender to the people, and Prince William had no choice but to abdicate and flee to London for refuge.

However, the German bourgeoisie also feared the power of the proletariat. They believed that it was more stable for Germany to maintain a monarchical system and recalled Prince Wilhelm from London, preparing to implement a constitutional monarchy in his name. On March 28, 1849, the Frankfurt Parliament passed the Imperial Constitution and elected Wilhelm IV as German Emperor, which is the origin of the title Wilhelm I.

In other words, the title of German Emperor was not an honorary title bestowed upon Wilhelm I by his victory in the Franco-Prussian War, but rather an acknowledgment of the achievements of the 1848 German Revolution. In other words, the title of German Emperor was, in effect, a golden yoke forged by the German people for their ruler. Ito Hirobumi's advocacy of learning from the German constitutional monarchy was, in effect, a deception of Emperor Meiji and those within the country who expected the Emperor to rule personally.

Therefore, if Germany were to bow to Britain and France and acknowledge the outcome of the Franco-Prussian War, the German people would believe that the Hohenzollern family was no longer capable of protecting the interests of the German nation, and their title of German Emperor would be effectively abolished. According to the will of the German people, Wilhelm II should abdicate.

Therefore, the Germany represented by Wilhelm II could not surrender to Britain and France, and not surrendering would mean the outbreak of war in Europe. Although Lin was an Easterner, his understanding of European history surpassed that of the average German. This was Krupp's subconscious reaction.

Krupp had to carefully consider the suggestion brought by Tian Junyi. After a moment, he first stated his position to Tian Junyi: "Tian, ​​I think you should know that Krupp's investment in China is made with real money. We who are engaged in manufacturing are different from those commercial companies. They need privileges, but what we need is order."

For us, the stable social order established by the Wuhan government and its continuous investment in infrastructure are of greatest benefit. This is why we didn't invest heavily in Jiaozhou Bay, but instead chose Wuhan as the location for our factory. There are indeed some historical issues between Germany and China, but these are mainly conflicts between Germany and the Qing Dynasty. This is completely different from our relationship with you; our relationship is friendly.

Tian Junyi knew in his heart that this new friendly relationship was built on Wuhan's own military strength and the German friendship gained through several confrontations between Wuhan and Britain, but he would not emphasize this point at this time. Therefore, he nodded slightly in response and said, "We recognize Krupp's contributions to the Chinese people, which is why I made this suggestion to you. If it weren't for friendship, why would I tell you in advance about the current predicament Germany is facing?"

Krupp felt a slight sense of relief and continued, "Regarding the Jiaozhou Bay leased territory and the Jiaoji Railway, we have actually been discussing this with Berlin. We believe that the territory and the railway should be returned to the Chinese government for management. Germany only needs to maintain its railway shares and the security of its local investments; these commercial interests are sufficient."

Berlin has also considered our proposal, but when it acquired the Jiaozhou Bay lease, the Imperial government gave the people a lot of false propaganda. Now that it has suddenly given up, it will put the Imperial government in a political predicament. That is why Berlin has been hesitant to resolve the Jiaozhou Bay lease issue.

However, Berlin also believed that the Jiaozhou Bay leased territory was not as good as imagined. In fact, the majority of German commercial interests in China were in Wuhan. Germany's commercial interests in Qingdao could not even compare with those in Shanghai, while its investment in Qingdao far exceeded that in Shanghai. After all, Shanghai was a leased territory managed by the British and French, and had nothing to do with Germany…

Tian Junyi and Lin Xinyi both seemed unconvinced by Krupp's words. It wasn't the Chinese who invited the Germans to occupy Qingdao. If Germany couldn't develop in Qingdao, should they blame the people of Shandong for not cooperating?

Krupp seemed to realize the inappropriateness of his words, so he quickly concluded by explaining his intentions: "We can also feel the approaching footsteps of war in Europe every day, and we are trying to ease the relationship between Britain and Germany, but we have not considered what to do with our overseas investments once the war breaks out."

German businesspeople will appreciate your goodwill, but the abolition of the Jiaozhou Bay lease and other German privileges in China requires two conditions: first, when your party becomes the ruling party in China; and second, how we can persuade the navy to abandon its idea of ​​occupying Qingdao. Currently, it is actually the Imperial Admiralty, not the Imperial Government, that insists on retaining the Jiaozhou Bay lease.

Regarding the first question, Tian Junyi answered for Krupp without hesitation: "When the Labor Party became the ruling party of the Chinese government has nothing to do with the recovery of the Jiaozhou Bay leased territory, because the Labor Party must stand on the same side as the Chinese people. Regardless of whether it is in power or not, we cannot oppose the recovery of the Jiaozhou Bay leased territory and the abolition of all unequal treaties with foreign countries."

Our current support for the Beijing government is not because we lack the ability to seize Beijing, but because we do not want the great powers to use China's civil war to preserve the unequal treaties they signed with the Qing Dynasty. Just as the German Empire unified Germany through the Franco-Prussian War, not through the military conquest of the western German states.

We will only reject the Beijing government under one condition: if it attempts to act as an accomplice of foreign powers in suppressing the Chinese people, thereby leading to its abandonment by the Chinese people. In that case, we will respond to the people's call and use force to expel the Beijing government…

Krupp did have reservations about Tian Junyi's claim of all unequal treaties. In his view, not all treaties were unequal, but he acknowledged that the new government of the country refused to recognize the treaties signed by the previous dynasty as reasonable, and instead relied on the new regime that overthrew the previous dynasty to accept all the treaties it signed with foreign powers. This was what was strange.

Having explained why the Workers' Party did not seize power in Beijing by force, Tian Junyi turned his attention to Lin Xinyi, who was standing to the side. He believed that Lin Xinyi clearly had a clearer idea of ​​how to persuade the German Navy than he did.

Lin Xinyi saw Tian Junyi's gaze and understood his thoughts, so he took over the task without hesitation and said: "The German Navy simply regards Qingdao as a fortified port in the East, similar to Mumbai and Calcutta in India for Britain."

The German Navy attempted to use Qingdao as a base to compete with Britain and France, but this era of free competition during the colonial period had ended. A century or two earlier, Germany might have been able to establish a sphere of influence in the Far East.

However, now that Britain's global colonial system is complete and the British Navy has established its hegemonic position in the world's seas, it means that the British do not need to besiege German fortified ports in the Far East. As long as the British cut off Qingdao's connection with the mainland, even if Qingdao is fortified, it will not be able to hold on on its own.

Because Eastern national consciousness has awakened, no nation with self-respect can tolerate the repeat of the history of Spain conquering the Americas, Britain conquering India, and the United States conquering Native Americans in its own country. This is why Russia could not hold Port Arthur and Vladivostok.

Therefore, you can frankly inform your country's Navy that the Japanese government is attempting to exploit Chinese nationalist sentiments, replicating the actions of the Triple Intervention in Liaodong, to support the Chinese in reclaiming the Jiaozhou Bay leased territory and the Jiaoji Railway, thereby sowing discord between China and Germany.

I believe that anyone in your country's Navy Ministry with basic diplomatic common sense should understand that, for Japan, the close relationship between China and Germany is an external obstacle to Japan's expansion on the mainland. As long as Japan does not want to abandon its mainland policy, then damaging the relationship between China and Germany is inevitable.

Germany essentially faced only two choices: one was to passively wait for Japan to incite Chinese nationalism, forcing it to relinquish the Jiaozhou Bay leased territory and completely destroying relations; the other was to proactively return Jiaozhou Bay, thereby channeling Chinese nationalism towards Britain and France, thus making China a friend of Germany in the Far East.

Krupp turned his gaze to Tian Junyi in shock and asked him for confirmation: "Does the Japanese really have such an idea?"

As Lin Xinyi spoke, Tian Junyi had already reviewed Lin Xinyi's words over the past few days, thus grasping Lin Xinyi's strategy. He confidently nodded in agreement, saying, "The Japanese side proposed to us the establishment of an East Asian security alliance to maintain peace in East Asia. As a gesture of goodwill, the Japanese also offered to sell us several Russian ships captured in this war at a low price to help our country rebuild its navy. Japan and Britain are allies, so it is self-evident who the Japanese see as a threat to peace in East Asia."

Krupp could no longer remain aloof. Previously, when Tian Junyi suggested returning Jiaozhou, he had argued that it was a matter between governments and had nothing to do with him as a businessman. Of course, this was merely Krupp's excuse; after all, the desire to acquire German lands under the sunlight was precisely what fueled Germany's overseas expansion, driven by capitalists like himself.

Germany's colonies in the Pacific were largely established through colonial operations initiated by German merchants. Even when the German navy seized Jiaozhou Bay, German commercial capital held high hopes for Shandong. However, the navy's attempt to develop Qingdao into a model overseas colony made German capital see no future there. The Jiaozhou Bay Governor's Office, led by the German navy, overstepped its bounds, leading to fierce conflicts with local residents over land and taxation. Consequently, German capital felt that while Qingdao was German territory, it was less suitable for German investment than British-administered concessions like Shanghai. After all, the purpose of capital is to pursue profit, not to defend national honor.

Of course, with the emergence of Wuhan, a city more aligned with the interests of German capital, German capital no longer even looked favorably upon Shanghai. Precisely because German capital reaped enormous profits in Wuhan, those who championed Sino-German friendship began to reconsider whether Germany's previous policies toward China had been overly imperialist.

However, the rapid change in the stance of German capital and the German army toward China did not affect the German navy. During the Sino-British conflict in Tibet, the German army saw the possibility of China containing Britain in the Far East and therefore advocated increasing cooperation with China. However, the colonies in the Far East were managed by the navy, and the navy did not feel that being friendly with China required giving up its interests in Qingdao.

The German army and navy were not on equal footing. Strictly speaking, the army was more subordinate to the General Staff than to the Emperor himself, while the navy, which began to grow stronger under Wilhelm II, was more loyal to the Emperor.

Therefore, Wilhelm II was more willing to allocate funds to the navy because the navy seemed more obedient to his orders.

Therefore, persuading the German Navy to accept the abandonment of Qingdao was essentially persuading Wilhelm II. If Wilhelm II could accept it, then the German Naval Ministry would most likely agree as well. Similarly, once the German Naval Ministry was given a reason to abandon Qingdao, it would be difficult for Wilhelm II to insist on continuing to hold onto Qingdao.

Krupp did not want to get involved in the Jiaozhou Bay issue because he knew it was related to the Emperor himself and his favorite minister, State Secretary of the Admiralty, Alfred von Schwarzman.

General Tirpitz had close ties with the island, and in fact, the leased territory of Jiaozhou Bay was proposed by General Tirpitz and was part of his plan for a long-range fleet.

If Germany lost Jiaozhou Bay, the hundreds of thousands of indigenous people in German New Guinea and German Samoa would not be able to support the construction and daily supply of a modern naval base. A major reason Germany was able to develop Qingdao as if it were a city within Germany is that the Chinese in Shandong could provide almost all the manpower and resources; Germany only needed to transport the machinery from its homeland.

For example, in 1903, German technicians built a 16,000-ton floating dock in Qingdao, which was completed in October 1905. Although it couldn't match the construction speed in Germany, in an agricultural country with almost no industrial base, a group of Shandong farmers successfully transformed into shipbuilding workers, undertaking most of the work, solely with the guidance of German technicians. This was unimaginable for the natives of the Pacific islands, because the natives simply couldn't understand the principles of steel construction. The Chinese were simply limited by Confucianism, not incapable of thinking.

It was through the construction of the Qingdao Shipyard and other projects that the German Navy believed Shandong to be the most reliable naval base for Germany in the Far East. With Shandong, the German Navy would have an unsinkable home port in the Far East.

Without the port of Qingdao, the German fleet would have had no safe anchorage in the Far East. The harsh climate of New Guinea and the insufficient population and industrial resources of Samoa meant that the German fleet could only make short-term stops there, rather than establishing a long-term presence. In other words, without the port of Qingdao, there was no need to maintain the German East Asia Fleet, nor could it sustain itself.

Krupp was, of course, aware of the reasons the Admiralty had given the Emperor, and naturally wouldn't dig a hole for himself by making the Emperor and the Admiralty see him as an adversary. However, the situation was different now. If Japan intervened in the Jiaozhou Bay issue, it meant that China might be drawn into the Anglo-Japanese alliance. This meant that Germany would not only lose Qingdao, but the current Sino-German relations would also deteriorate rapidly, leaving German capital investments in China unprotected. This protection wouldn't come from Germany, but from the friendship forged in Wuhan.

Krupp was well aware of a reality: the only entity capable of protecting German capital in China at that time was the Wuhan government. If the Wuhan government turned against Germany, Germany would not be able to send a large army to China to protect the interests of German merchants as it had in 1900. Moreover, even tens of thousands of German troops could not subdue Wuhan, given that Wuhan had already dealt with hundreds of thousands of British and Indian troops and hundreds of thousands of Russian troops. Compared to Russia and Britain, which had the Trans-Siberian Railway and naval supremacy as logistical support, it was almost impossible for Germany to guarantee the logistics of an expeditionary force to China. If Britain were to make a move, the humiliation suffered by Tsar Nicholas II would be inflicted upon Wilhelm II.

Krupp immediately realized he couldn't ignore the situation, as it was no longer merely a diplomatic matter between China and Germany, but rather a manifestation of the Anglo-French-German confrontation in the Far East. Clearly, the Japanese were exploiting the confrontation between the two major European blocs to encircle and suppress German influence in the Far East.

Chapter 658

Chapter 658

When a conflict broke out between China and Germany, Krupp remained calm because he knew that China was weak and Germany was strong, so a complete breakdown of diplomatic relations between the two countries was impossible, as China could not afford the consequences. For example, the current Wuhan regime, without the support of German capital, would immediately see its seemingly booming industrial development come to a standstill.

Krupp had such confidence because the Chinese lacked too much experience in industrial development. Although the Chinese were very intelligent, this was completely different from the African natives. Only a very small number of African natives could understand that firearms were man-made products designed and manufactured, not much different from the spears they used in the past, except that the process was more complex.

German intellectuals have made racial comparisons between China and Africa, arguing that the Chinese people's mastery of written language and history made it easy for them to accept historical progressivism. They believe that the Chinese did not need to ask God for permission when accepting science. What truly hindered China's scientific and technological development was the imperial power of China. In order to maintain their rule, Chinese monarchs needed to keep the people ignorant and treated science as something that corrupted people's hearts. This was especially evident in the Manchu Qing dynasty, a foreign regime.

When the Chinese abandoned the monarchical system, the biggest obstacle preventing them from learning science and technology disappeared. They readily accepted the technological advancements that Europe had achieved through centuries of struggle against divine authority, much like a bucket of water poured into the desert being quickly absorbed. Africans, however, were different. They lacked their own history and had almost no written language. They believed their lives were under divine protection, so technologies forbidden by God were beyond their comprehension.

Therefore, the Chinese are excellent students, just like the Japanese. Japan was once a member of the Chinese cultural sphere, but China has been separated from the world for too long. It is not something that can be accomplished in one or two generations for them to learn from the technological achievements that Europe has built up over hundreds of years. Just translating the achievements of European civilization into Chinese would take a generation of Chinese people. The Japanese spent decades learning from European civilization, and now Japanese industry would hardly achieve anything without the guidance of European scientists.

The German intellectual community's assessment of the Japanese and Chinese was endorsed by German capitalists such as Krupp, because according to their intelligence, modern Japan could not accomplish any new work without European designs. The Japanese could only achieve some success in replicating European industry. Of course, globally, the Japanese were already the most outstanding people of color outside of Europe. The Turks were so close to Europe, but they had not truly understood the essence of European civilization.

German capitalists held a similar view of Chinese workers: they were hardworking, diligent, and unlike their domestic counterparts who had been corrupted by socialist ideology, they didn't constantly demand increased benefits from factories. Although the Workers' Party also advocated for the study of scientific socialism, the fact that Chinese workers who had adopted it actually became more efficient surprised the German capitalists.

However, German capitalists still believed that without German technology and capital, the Chinese would not be able to make Wuhan's massive industrial and transportation system function properly. Although Zhang Zhidong had already established some industries in Wuhan, including the Hanyang Ironworks, one of China's most important heavy industries, Europeans generally believed that Wuhan had little industry and only inefficient state-owned factories before German capital began entering the city in 1901.

The Germans have a deep understanding of these state factories because their neighbor Russia has been operating similar state factories for a long time. Although these state factories absorbed advanced European technology, they lacked the ability to innovate. This is because these factories were not established for the market, but rather by imperial decree. Their survival depended entirely on state finances, so they lacked motivation for research and innovation. After all, the factory managers and workers were concerned with their own positions and welfare, and production had no direct connection with their lives.

The state-owned factories in Wuhan today are not much different from those in Russia. The only difference is that the Workers' Party, through its propaganda of scientific socialism, stimulated the workers' enthusiasm for production and guaranteed their welfare, thus creating a productive workforce. However, the Chinese only knew how to produce; they were completely ignorant of the market and scientific research. Without the Germans designing the production process and placing orders for them, the Chinese either wouldn't know how to produce or wouldn't know who to sell their products to.

Production under an industrialized system is completely different from the handicraft workshops in an agricultural society. The former's large-scale production can effectively reduce production costs, but if the product cannot be accepted by the market, then what is produced is not a commodity, but a debt for the factory. The reason why German capital was keen to invest in Wuhan was that they used it to get rid of the endless protests from the domestic working class and to control the most profitable link in the production-sales process.

Because German capitalists believed their position in this production-sales system was irreplaceable, Krupp wasn't particularly enthusiastic about relations between China and Germany. In his view, as long as Sino-German relations didn't deteriorate to the point of full-blown confrontation, he didn't need to expend too much energy promoting friendly relations. After all, domestic nationalist sentiment was rising due to confrontations with France and Britain, and speaking well of foreigners at this time carried additional risks.

However, if Japan were to intervene in Sino-German relations, the nature of the problem would change. Krupp would not believe that Japan would attempt to confront Germany, because Japan's national strength was far inferior to Germany's, and the cooperation between Japan and Germany was quite close, with Germany providing support to Japan in both military and industrial fields.

However, the existence of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance forced Germany to consider whether Japan's actions were instigated by the British. The Germans certainly did not view the Anglo-Japanese Alliance as an equal alliance; it was clearly a master-servant relationship. Just like Germany's diplomacy towards China, although it had greatly improved, it had merely transformed China from a potential colony into a exploitable Far Eastern Ottoman Empire.

If Japan, under British direction, instigated the Chinese to reclaim Jiaozhou Bay, it would mean that the British could fill the industrial gaps left by the German withdrawal from Wuhan. This was intolerable to German capital. In effect, this was a war waged by British capital against German capital; the British intended to be the host of a banquet prepared by German capital.

Krupp immediately changed his mind, viewing the Workers' Party, represented by Tian Junyi, as an ally of German capital against British capital. He declared to Tian Junyi, "German capital has always supported the Wuhan government led by the Workers' Party, and I hope Chairman Tian will remember this."

The Japanese are attempting to incite Chinese nationalism against Germany; this is clearly a conspiracy by the British and Japanese. If German capital withdraws from China, Wuhan will not benefit; instead, it will become subject to British capital. Since the Opium Wars, the British have never shown goodwill towards China; they have been plotting to turn China into a second India, while most of our people simply want to do business with China.

Tian Junyi remained silent for a moment before saying to Krupp, "I understand what Mr. Krupp means, but I am powerless to change this. Since the abdication of the Qing emperor, it has become impossible for one person to decide the fate of the country, because the people will abandon him, and I believe no one wants to confront the people head-on."

The Workers' Party cannot reject the suggestions put forward by the Japanese government, otherwise it would be tantamount to denying the peaceful relations between Japan and China. For China, which urgently needs time for peaceful development, peace with Japan is the focus of China's current diplomatic relations.

Another point is that there is a huge volume of trade between Germany and Britain, but the British and Germans are not concerned that a breakdown in bilateral relations would lead to a decline in Anglo-German trade. Even the most rational Europeans are so impulsive on national issues; for our people, whose national consciousness is just beginning to awaken, it is unrealistic to expect them to simultaneously acknowledge Germany's privileges in China and admit that Germany and China have a friendly relationship.

The Workers' Party has achieved its current position because of the people's support, and we cannot stand against the people. All I can do is inform you in advance so that your country can make a decision as soon as possible. Before your country makes a decision, we cannot risk being abandoned by the people by unconditionally supporting Germany.

Krupp was momentarily at a loss for words, as Tian Junyi's words had been so blunt that he had no room for maneuver. After much deliberation, Krupp realized that if he didn't clearly state his position, he risked losing Tian Junyi's complete trust. If Tian stopped revealing the Labour Party's stance to him, it would mean that the Labour Party was more likely to be aligned with British capital.

To avoid being excluded from Tian Junyi's private circle, Krupp had no choice but to say: "Personally, I support the abolition of all the unequal treaties signed between Germany and Qing China, and the signing of a new bilateral treaty under fair and equal conditions. I also support the return of Jiaozhou Bay, which Germany has leased, to China. I believe that Siemens and other German companies share similar views with Krupp."

However, according to our system, national diplomacy depends on the Imperial Diet, while the management of colonies is in the hands of the Emperor and the military. At most, we can raise the issue of abandoning Jiaozhou Bay in the Diet, but to truly persuade the Emperor and the military to abandon Jiaozhou Bay, the disadvantage of the international environment alone is obviously not enough. After all, it is precisely because of our isolation in the international environment that our country has built up its navy on a large scale.

To abandon Jiaozhou Bay now, simply because of Japanese threats, would incite public distrust of the Emperor and the Navy. I believe that, in order to maintain their dignity, neither the Emperor nor the Minister of the Navy would accept the model of voluntarily returning Jiaozhou Bay to avoid war in the Far East; they would rather believe that the Japanese would not dare to provoke a challenge to German authority.

While I don't believe the Japanese lack the courage to challenge Germany's power in the Far East, I can't make His Majesty the Emperor and the Minister of the Navy understand this, or rather, they would pretend not to understand.

Tian Junyi did not show too much surprise. He turned his gaze to Lin Xinyi again, who calmly suggested to Krupp, "If your emperor and naval minister are thinking this way, then Mr. Krupp, you can make a suggestion to them."

If war were to break out in Europe, Germany's overseas colonies and investments would almost certainly become targets of British and French attacks. In the Far East, Japan, based on the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, would inevitably attempt to seize German colonies in Asia, while British territories in Australia and New Zealand would seize the opportunity to expel Germany from the Pacific. I believe this is an inevitable reality, and it will not be deterred by the denials of the Emperor and the First Lord of the Admiralty.

Therefore, Germany had few options for maintaining its sphere of influence in the Far East. The best option was to break the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, creating a direct confrontation between Japan and Britain. To counter British pressure, Japan would then protect German influence in Asia to prevent it from falling under British control.

Krupp interrupted Lin Xinyi with some disbelief, asking, "Breaking the Anglo-Japanese Alliance would certainly benefit Germany, and it would also be good for China. But how can the Anglo-Japanese Alliance be broken? The British just supported Japan in fighting a war against Russia, and it is said that Japan owes Britain a large debt as a result. Under such circumstances, would Japan dare to antagonize Britain?"

Lin Xinyi smiled and replied, "Confrontation doesn't necessarily mean hostility, and breaking an alliance doesn't necessarily require a breakdown in Anglo-Japanese relations. All that's needed is an agreement that better suits the interests of both Britain and Japan than the Anglo-Japanese Alliance to cover its terms. For example, the East Asia Alliance Conference, based on China, Japan, and the newly independent states of the German Pacific Islands, to defend peace and national liberation in Asia."

The main purpose of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was to maintain peace and order in East Asia. Since the East Asian Alliance Conference could guarantee peace and order in Asia, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was effectively abolished.

Unless Britain acknowledges that the Anglo-Japanese Alliance aims to make Japan a watchdog for its East Asian interests, it cannot oppose the formation of the East Asia Alliance Conference. If they did, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance's supporters within Japan would rapidly decline, and the alliance would lose public support and become unsustainable.

Krupp was momentarily taken aback by Lin Xinyi's abrupt shifts in thinking. He had just been considering exchanging Jiaozhou Bay when Lin Xinyi proposed the independence of the German Pacific islands. Krupp quickly shook his head, saying, "That's rather unrealistic. Returning Jiaozhou Bay and then granting independence to the Pacific islands would mean Germany losing all its colonies in the Far East, rendering the navy's efforts of the past decade or so futile. The Emperor and the Minister of the Navy would never accept such a suggestion..."

Lin Xinyi continued unhurriedly, "I don't think the Emperor and the Minister of the Navy will refuse, because after the independence of the German Pacific Islands, they can still recognize the German Emperor as the national leader, only that they will be free from German control in diplomacy, domestic affairs and military affairs."

German capital and the German East Asian fleet could be transferred to the newly independent nation, allowing it to maintain a neutral stance even in the event of a major war in Europe. This would prevent Britain and France from seizing assets under the guise of war.

The security of this new nation will be guaranteed by the East Asian Alliance Conference, based on the three countries. China and Japan will jointly issue a statement declaring that any invasion of any member of the Alliance Conference constitutes a declaration of war against the entire Alliance. As long as the new nation does not attempt to initiate a war, it will enjoy this security guarantee.

Given the current standoff between the two major camps in Europe, even a German-flagged high seas fleet would find it difficult to enter the Atlantic Ocean, as they would have to consider the risk of being cut off by the Royal Navy. However, if we establish an East Asian joint fleet based on the East Asian Alliance Conference, then German warships would also be able to navigate freely in the Pacific region, albeit under a different flag.

In this way, the German Navy no longer needed to consider the security of its East Asian fleet and Pacific islands during the war, and it possessed a small fleet in East Asia capable of defending German capital. From this perspective, the German Navy's blue-water fleet plan was not destroyed, but rather initially realized.

However, if Germany pins its hopes on Britain's decision not to participate in the war and fails to prepare for British involvement in the Franco-German conflict, then once a war breaks out in Europe, Germany's influence in Asia will be quickly encircled and destroyed, and its overseas investments will vanish. Even if Germany achieves final victory in the war, it will be impossible for it to regain its colonies and power in Asia.

Conversely, even if Germany were to lose the war, at least German capital overseas could rebuild Germany after the war. I believe this is the most advantageous path for German capital and for His Majesty Emperor Wilhelm.

Krupp stared at Lin Xinyi for a long time, and in his heart he had to admit that Lin Xinyi's judgment was correct. If Germany really lost the war, German capital was much more rational than the German people. They did not think that Germany could defeat France, which had British support, because Germany's domestic resources were far too scarce compared to those of the British. Germany's steel industry even had to import iron ore from abroad. The British, who had naval power, could cut off Germany's foreign trade artery at any time, causing the German economy to bleed.

If Germany were to be defeated in the war, then the independent overseas nations that Lin Xinyi mentioned would be the key force for Germany's revival. This would also be the most likely way for German overseas capital to escape the war, since with China and Japan as guarantors, Britain would be unlikely to attack the German Pacific islands unless it wanted to destabilize Asia.

Chapter 659

Chapter 659

　Lin Xinyi's suggestion greatly impressed Franz Krupp, who suddenly realized that it was indeed a brilliant strategy to keep German capital out of the European war. German capital was actually quite conflicted about the outbreak of the European war; they wanted to completely defeat France and thus gain European hegemony, becoming the second European superpower after Napoleon's empire, but they also hoped that the war would be limited to France and Germany, without dragging the British into it.

This contradictory mentality essentially stems from the idea that Germany's complete defeat of France would mean that Germany could extend its influence into the Mediterranean, thereby establishing a completely new pan-Germanic sphere of influence around the Mediterranean. The country that controls the Mediterranean would naturally possess hegemony spanning three continents: Europe, Asia, and Africa. Under this hegemony, German capital would have a vast space to develop.

In contrast, while China is important to German capital, it is too far away from Germany. Even if Germany's high seas fleet develops to the point where it can rival Britain's global naval power, it still may not be able to force a major power that is beginning its industrialization process to submit. Germany is no stranger to this situation, after all, the Russian Empire on the periphery of Europe was a monarchy similar to the Eastern style.

In the eyes of Europeans, the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire were actually of similar status; neither were Europeans, but rather Eastern peoples who invaded Europe. The Russian Empire was slightly stronger than the Ottoman Empire in that its people adhered to Eastern Orthodoxy, making it, from a religious perspective, arguably a Christian country.

However, without Peter the Great's reforms, there would be no difference between Russia and the Ottomans, and the Russians might even be more barbaric than the Ottomans. At least Europeans acknowledge that Muslims are merely infidels, not true barbarians, but the Russians are a different story; the country exudes a barbaric aura from top to bottom.

Even a nation founded by barbarians, after accepting Peter the Great's reforms, saw the Russian Empire develop civilized cities like St. Petersburg and Moscow, reminiscent of Europe. With a larger population than Germany, and thanks to the abundant resources of its vast territory and its endless manpower, the Russian Empire, despite developing some seemingly backward European industries, aroused the vigilance of the Germans.

The German perception of China, from the establishment of Qingdao to the development of Wuhan, quickly reversed the mistaken view that the Chinese were unsuitable for industrial development. Compared to the Russians, the Chinese, with their favorable climate and hardworking people, developed industry much faster. Even more frightening was the fact that Russia, already a behemoth to Germany, was merely a junior compared to China.

Therefore, while German capital covets the Chinese market, it doesn't believe the Chinese can be manipulated at will. Germany cannot replicate Britain's conquest of India here. So, if Germany defeats France, the safest investment area for German capital would naturally be where German military power can directly protect it.

Before the cooperation with Wuhan, the region where German capital invested most heavily overseas was neither its own colonies, nor Russia or the United States, but the Mediterranean coast within the Ottoman Empire. The railway connecting Berlin to the Ottoman Empire gave German capital a great sense of security.

Therefore, German capital was extremely resistant to conflict with Britain. They knew that the British could use their sea power to sever the connection between overseas investments and Germany itself. Once war broke out, these overseas investments, as the Chinese have said, would become the target of Britain, France and their allies.

The Chinese are now making this suggestion, although essentially to avoid being drawn into the European war by Germany. The close cooperation between Wuhan and Germany is no longer a simple trade relationship, but a comprehensive imitation from military to cultural aspects. The current Wuhan is no different from the Meiji Restoration government that sent students to Europe to learn European systems.

Germany's philosophy, education system, industrial system, and military system all became models for Wuhan to emulate and learn from. This was incomparable to the Qing government sending hundreds of young children to the United States or the spontaneous migration of people to Japan to study. The former two did not involve large-scale imitation, so the learning only broadened the horizons of a few hundred or a few thousand people, and had a very weak impact on the changes in this ancient country.

However, Wuhan's clear-cut imitation of European systems brought about a complete transformation of the political system in Wuhan. Compared with the Japanese, Wuhan, which abandoned the monarchical system, actually carried out more radical changes to the old traditions and systems.

For example, democratic centralism is impossible to implement in Japan because, in theory, the Emperor is the symbol of national sovereignty. The Japanese parliament can discuss any issue, but it cannot discuss the abolition of the Emperor system. And when their discussions encounter the Emperor's will, they can only be forced to back down.